July 31 weekly Options expiration

I have 7 existing positions that include Options expiring today. Here’s the plan:

Caterpillar $CAT  I am long the 85/82.5 Put Ratio. I am short stock at $82.5 (hedge). I will let this trade auto-unwind for +2.50 (thus closing this Submarine Basket position). The Options Net final will be: $4.91

priceline.com $PCLN  I own the July 31w/Sep 1160/1230 Diagonal Call Calendar with short weekly $1140 Puts. I will take stock at $1160 with short September $1230 Calls (covered calls). The short weekly $1140 Puts will go poof. Options Net remains: $8.70 and booked stock gain remains: $4.22

Skyworks Solutions $SWKS  I am short the 110/115 Call Spread – which I will let expire. Options Net final: $10.51 and booked stock gain: $2.27

Financial Select Sector SPDR $XLF  I am long the ETF at $25.30 with short weekly $25.5 Calls (covered calls). Current Options Net: $.59. I will adjust to a future expiry

Earnings:

Baidu $BIDU  I am long the 200/210/220 Call Fly and short the $180 Puts. I will adjust the short Puts to a future expiry. The long Call Fly goes poof. Current Options Net: $.69 and booked stock gain: $11.33 (from the hedge)

United Parcel $UPS  I am long the 95/98/100 Call Fly and short the $93 Puts. I will: take stock at $95, adjust the middle of the Call Fly to a future expiry, StC the long weekly $100 Calls. Current Options Net: $.68 and booked stock gain: $1.47 (from the hedge)

LinkedIn $LNKD I am long the 230/240/250 Call Fly and short the $190 Puts. I think this whole trade goes poof today. Options Net: $.79 and booked stock gain: $36.225 (from tag along short in after hours 7/30)

 

– DM 9:00 AM CST

 

The Collar Put Ratio starring Facebook

One of the Option strategies I utilize for protecting a position short-term is the Collar Put Ratio (CPR). Here is what a CPR looks like using the Fab 5 position ($100 Roll) for $FB as an example:

I am long stock at $90.33 (since 7/16)

Here is the CPR:

I am short the August 07 weekly $95 Calls
I am long the August 07 weekly 95/87.5 1×2 Put Ratio (for every 1 contract that I am long the $95 Put I am short 2 $87.5 Puts). This takes margin

So let’s look at a Daily chart to see how this trade looks post-Earnings:

FB_G

The black horizontal line represents the $95 level which is key for the Option portion of my trade. The long $95 Puts are ITM (in the money) so the long stock is protected well so far.

– DM 9:30 AM CST

Earnings preview

I have several existing positions that have Earnings AMC:

  • $BWLD (Submarine Basket)
  • $PNRA (Submarine Basket)
  • $GILD (own for some clients)
  • $IACI (Swing account)
  • $ESRX (IRA account)

Here is an EPS graph on $BWLD via Estimize:

BWLD

Note: You can view the specific trade info on the appropriate Positions tab.

– DM 10:20 AM CST

Baidu earnings preview

BIDU

The above graph is via Estimize showing the recent EPS information (I’ve added the Red horizontal line). Below is a Daily chart where I’ve added a horizontal line (black) showing where price is currently testing (50 SMA is joining in the fight as well):

BIDU_H

Now armed with this information, what are trade considerations? Here are a few:

If Bullish

Long the 200/210/185 RRCS (Risk Reversal Call Spread)
Long the 200/210/220 Call Fly with short $180 Puts

If Bearish

Long the 195/190 Put Spread and short the Aug 28w/July 31w $205 Diagonal Call Calendar
Long the 195/190/185 Put Fly

– DM 10:40 AM CST

The rhyming market

An important chart to watch at all times is the NYSE New Highs-New Lows. This chart will give you a quick view of the overall price activity for the NYSE and will clearly make visible the extremes for which the market moves.

We are at an extreme now:

$NYHL_B

Weekly chart

If you believe that history repeats – more accurately rhymes – then now is the time to create a Buy list.

 

– DM 9:40 AM CST

Sector Review

One area that I spend time reviewing each weekend is at the Sector level. One website that I use (and have it noted on my Tools page) is Stockfetcher.com

Here is a complete Sectors view:

Sectors_07252015

Using the link above you can drill down into each Sector or Industry to see what is happening under the hood in all the participants (6000+ tickers).

– DM 10:00 AM CST

Bottom Fishing

Now that we are into the heart of Earnings season, my list of stocks that are getting beat up post-Earnings is growing. Although I have a full Submarine Basket at the moment – primarily where I would add new positions for these – I am considering creating a 2nd basket.

Here are just some tickers from the growing list of candidates:

$UTX
$LXK
$PII
$CAB
$COL
$TEN
$BIIB (I added to the Submarine Basket on 7/24)

There are also numerous pull-back candidates that are at interesting Buy points. Here are 2 well-known brands:

$FDX
$UPS

 

– DM 9:30 AM CST