Probably

There are times that I view a particular chart and I see several possible targets and/or scenarios playing out. Ugh.

So what is the right approach? Do you just move on to the next potential setup, something more “clean”? I see nothing wrong with this approach as I often just move on to evaluating the next setup(s). However, there are times where there may be some real value in rolling up your sleeves to capture the highest probability of the next price movement (up or down).

Case in point, I bring you ALGN (Align Technology) Daily chart:

As you can see, there are 2 possibilities clearly laid out here. First, you have the Breakout (B/O) Watch over the $25.50 level. Second, you have a large Gap Fill below that will eventually get filled.

Which is more probable in the next 30 days? I’m all ears, leave me a comment.

Update: So what has occurred since? The stock did move up through the B/O level, pulled back to the 50 day moving average, and pushed then pushed back up through the prior B/O level again. So far it is holding those gains.

5 thoughts on “Probably

  1. Dearld –

    My take on this stock is that it will look for a BO. The RSI has room to move and the MACD is also bullish.

    Regards

    Noman

  2. A fair point on the RSI sitting here at 60. The Bollinger Band squeeze is always nice too, sets up for a nice move soon.

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