Earnings preview

I have several existing positions that have Earnings AMC:

  • $BWLD (Submarine Basket)
  • $PNRA (Submarine Basket)
  • $GILD (own for some clients)
  • $IACI (Swing account)
  • $ESRX (IRA account)

Here is an EPS graph on $BWLD via Estimize:

BWLD

Note: You can view the specific trade info on the appropriate Positions tab.

– DM 10:20 AM CST

Baidu earnings preview

BIDU

The above graph is via Estimize showing the recent EPS information (I’ve added the Red horizontal line). Below is a Daily chart where I’ve added a horizontal line (black) showing where price is currently testing (50 SMA is joining in the fight as well):

BIDU_H

Now armed with this information, what are trade considerations? Here are a few:

If Bullish

Long the 200/210/185 RRCS (Risk Reversal Call Spread)
Long the 200/210/220 Call Fly with short $180 Puts

If Bearish

Long the 195/190 Put Spread and short the Aug 28w/July 31w $205 Diagonal Call Calendar
Long the 195/190/185 Put Fly

– DM 10:40 AM CST

The rhyming market

An important chart to watch at all times is the NYSE New Highs-New Lows. This chart will give you a quick view of the overall price activity for the NYSE and will clearly make visible the extremes for which the market moves.

We are at an extreme now:

$NYHL_B

Weekly chart

If you believe that history repeats – more accurately rhymes – then now is the time to create a Buy list.

 

– DM 9:40 AM CST

Sector Review

One area that I spend time reviewing each weekend is at the Sector level. One website that I use (and have it noted on my Tools page) is Stockfetcher.com

Here is a complete Sectors view:

Sectors_07252015

Using the link above you can drill down into each Sector or Industry to see what is happening under the hood in all the participants (6000+ tickers).

– DM 10:00 AM CST

Bottom Fishing

Now that we are into the heart of Earnings season, my list of stocks that are getting beat up post-Earnings is growing. Although I have a full Submarine Basket at the moment – primarily where I would add new positions for these – I am considering creating a 2nd basket.

Here are just some tickers from the growing list of candidates:

$UTX
$LXK
$PII
$CAB
$COL
$TEN
$BIIB (I added to the Submarine Basket on 7/24)

There are also numerous pull-back candidates that are at interesting Buy points. Here are 2 well-known brands:

$FDX
$UPS

 

– DM 9:30 AM CST

 

July 24 weekly Options expiration

I have 6 positions that include Options for the July 24 weekly expiration:

$AXP  I own the 78/79.5/81 Call Fly (which looks to go poof). Options Net: $1.63 and booked stock gain of $.29

$MU  I am long at $18.75 with a 19/17.5 Put Spread. I will likely adjust this PS to a future expiry. Options Net: $1.95

$MA  I am long at $92 with short $94 Calls (covered calls). Fab 5. I will adjust the short Calls to a future expiry. Options Net: $3.52

Earnings:

$IBM  I own the 175/177.5/167.5 RRCS. I am short stock at $170.44 as a hedge. Options Net: $.25 This trade should auto-unwind for +$3.19

$CMG  I own the 675/695/620 RRCS.  I am considering adjusting the short $695 Calls to a future expiry & taking stock at $675. The short $620 Puts will go poof. Options Net is currently: -$.46

$GPRO  I am short the 65/55 Strangle and long stock at $63 (hedge). If this does not get called away then:

The short Strangle goes poof
I will consider keeping the stock & sell premium against it for next week
Options Net is currently: $.41

 

– DM 10:25 AM CST

 

Earnings preview – Tuesday 7/21 AMC reports

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&t=MSFT,YHOO,CMG,AAPL,VMW,ISRG,GPRO,ILMN,LLTC,IRBT,PKG

The link above is quick way to view data on the key Earnings reports scheduled for after hours today, Tuesday 7/21/2015. Here are some trade ideas to consider if you have no position now:

Apple $AAPL  Long the July 24w 130/135/125 RRCS (existing stock position for some clients already)

Yahoo $YHOO  Long the July 24w 40/37 Put Ratio

Chipotle $CMG
1) Long the July 24w 675/700/725 Call Fly with Short $630 Puts
2) Long the July 24w 675/695/620 RRCS

Microsoft $MSFT  Long the July 24w 47/49/51 Call Fly with Short $45 Puts

VMware $VMW  Long the July 24w 85/88/91 Call Fly with Short $80 Puts

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG  Long the July 24w 500/520/540 Call Fly with Short $480 Puts

GoPro $GPRO  Long the July 24w 60/65/55 RRCS

Illumina $ILMN  Long the July 24w 235/245/255 Call Fly and Short the $220 Puts. (existing stock position for some clients already)

Package Corp $PKG  Long the August 65/62.5 Put Ratio

 

– DM 10:00 AM CST