Earnings preview

I have several existing positions that have Earnings AMC:

  • $BWLD (Submarine Basket)
  • $PNRA (Submarine Basket)
  • $GILD (own for some clients)
  • $IACI (Swing account)
  • $ESRX (IRA account)

Here is an EPS graph on $BWLD via Estimize:

BWLD

Note: You can view the specific trade info on the appropriate Positions tab.

– DM 10:20 AM CST

Baidu earnings preview

BIDU

The above graph is via Estimize showing the recent EPS information (I’ve added the Red horizontal line). Below is a Daily chart where I’ve added a horizontal line (black) showing where price is currently testing (50 SMA is joining in the fight as well):

BIDU_H

Now armed with this information, what are trade considerations? Here are a few:

If Bullish

Long the 200/210/185 RRCS (Risk Reversal Call Spread)
Long the 200/210/220 Call Fly with short $180 Puts

If Bearish

Long the 195/190 Put Spread and short the Aug 28w/July 31w $205 Diagonal Call Calendar
Long the 195/190/185 Put Fly

– DM 10:40 AM CST

Bottom Fishing

Now that we are into the heart of Earnings season, my list of stocks that are getting beat up post-Earnings is growing. Although I have a full Submarine Basket at the moment – primarily where I would add new positions for these – I am considering creating a 2nd basket.

Here are just some tickers from the growing list of candidates:

$UTX
$LXK
$PII
$CAB
$COL
$TEN
$BIIB (I added to the Submarine Basket on 7/24)

There are also numerous pull-back candidates that are at interesting Buy points. Here are 2 well-known brands:

$FDX
$UPS

 

– DM 9:30 AM CST

 

Earnings preview – Tuesday 7/21 AMC reports

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&t=MSFT,YHOO,CMG,AAPL,VMW,ISRG,GPRO,ILMN,LLTC,IRBT,PKG

The link above is quick way to view data on the key Earnings reports scheduled for after hours today, Tuesday 7/21/2015. Here are some trade ideas to consider if you have no position now:

Apple $AAPL  Long the July 24w 130/135/125 RRCS (existing stock position for some clients already)

Yahoo $YHOO  Long the July 24w 40/37 Put Ratio

Chipotle $CMG
1) Long the July 24w 675/700/725 Call Fly with Short $630 Puts
2) Long the July 24w 675/695/620 RRCS

Microsoft $MSFT  Long the July 24w 47/49/51 Call Fly with Short $45 Puts

VMware $VMW  Long the July 24w 85/88/91 Call Fly with Short $80 Puts

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG  Long the July 24w 500/520/540 Call Fly with Short $480 Puts

GoPro $GPRO  Long the July 24w 60/65/55 RRCS

Illumina $ILMN  Long the July 24w 235/245/255 Call Fly and Short the $220 Puts. (existing stock position for some clients already)

Package Corp $PKG  Long the August 65/62.5 Put Ratio

 

– DM 10:00 AM CST

 

Monthly Options expiration for July

Seems like I do this every 4 days lol

Here is what I have in existing positions that include July monthly Options as part of the trade:

$CRM  I own a 75/82.5/67.5 RRCS. Options Net: -$1.50 and booked stock gain of $9.45. Should go poof

$FLTX  I own a 45/50/55 Call Fly. Options Net: $1.32 and booked stock gain of $.50. Want to get some value from the long $45 Calls

$IACI  I own a 75/80/85/70 Risk Reversal Call Fly (L 75/80/85 CF, S $70 Puts). Options Net: $.53 and booked stock gain of $.45. Sweet spot here with price near $80

$RENT  I am long stock at $57.82 with a 70/65 Collar. Options Net: $1.18. Will likely adjust to an August Collar

$PCP  I am short stock at $207 with a Sep/July 250/200 Risk Reversal (the Puts are the short July $200). Options Net: $.25. The short Puts will assign, short stock get called +$7

$QRVO  I am long stock at $76 with a 85/85/75 Collar Put Ratio. Options Net: $2.03. The long $85 Puts are well ITM so I am not sure if I will adjust or let the position unwind

$XLF  I am long the $25 Calls. Options Net: $.12. Likely goes poof

$CYBR  I am long stock at $40 with $75 Puts. I will let this position unwind for +$33.20

$ESPR  I am long at $76.44 with a 85/75 Put Spread. I will adjust this to August (have short $90 Calls there as other part of the Collar Put Spread)

$JCI  I am long the $50 Calls. Likely goes poof

$MAR  I am long at $59.50 and long a 80/70 Put Spread. I will adjust the PS to a future expiry

$BWA  I am long a 57.5/60 Call Spread. Options Net: $1.74. This CS should go poof.

$HSY  I am short the $90 Puts. Options Net: $.57 and stock gain: $.17. Looking for these short Puts to go poof

$RH  I am long at $90.04 with a 100/100/95 Collar Put Spread. I will adjust to a future expiry

$TSCO  I own a 95/90 Risk Reversal. I am short stock at $90 (hedge). I will exit this Fab 5 position. Options Net: $.22

$DATA  I am long at $97 with a July 120/110 Put Ratio. I will adjust the PR to August

$ROST  I own a 50/52.5/48.75 RRCS. I will exit this Earnings trade

$SONC  I am short the 35/30 Strangle. I am short stock at $29 (hedge). Options Net: $1.04 and booked stock gain: $1.63. I will exit this Earnings trade

$LEN  I am long the 50/52.5/55 Call Fly and short the $47 Puts.  I will exit this Earnings trade

$STZ  I am short the $120 Calls (2x), long the $125 Calls, and short the $115 Puts. Options Net: $2.18 and booked stock gain: $2.20.  I will exit this Earnings trade, remaining Options should go poof

$PAYX  I am long at $44.66 with a 48/47/45 CPS.  I will exit this Earnings trade

$PEP  I am short the $97.5 Calls (2x), long the $100 Calls, and short the $94 Puts. Options Net: $1.88  I will exit this Earnings trade, remaining Options should go poof

$PSMT  I am short the 95/90 Strangle and long stock at $95 (hedge). I want this to go poof. Options Net: $3.22

 

 

– DM 11:00 AM CST

 

Looting a Call Fly

For those that are not familiar with a Call Fly, here is how it is structured:

  • Long a Call. This is the bottom of the Call Fly
  • Short 2 Calls at a strike (or more above). This is middle of the Call Fly
  • Long a Call above the short Calls. This is the top of the Call Fly

This trade structure will be for a debit (I often sell Puts below to pay for it).

So what does it mean to loot a Call Fly? This is really a made-up term from me but this is what I am referring to:

You have a Call Fly and the stock moves up enough to where the bottom of Call Fly is ITM (in the money). However, it doesn’t have enough momentum to get near the middle of the Call Fly. What I often do now is StC (Sell to Close) the long Calls (bottom of the Call Fly) thus leaving the rest of the Call Fly (middle, top). You want the remaining pieces to all expire worthless. By doing this though I increase the Risk (I would be short 2x Calls in this situation) so I always set a Buy Stop near the middle Call(s) strike (would act as a hedge).

Here is a recent trade where I did just that:

Lennar $LEN

I initially opened a long July 50/52.5/55 Call Fly with short $47 Puts on 6/23 for Earnings. The stock did move up near the $52 level but stalled and pulled back. I StC the $50 Calls thus leaving the rest of the trade. I then set a Buy Stop at $51.25 on 6/25 (which has triggered).

 

– DM 9:40 AM CST

 

Earnings preview: Sonic Corp

SONC_IV

One of the reasons I prefer selling a July Strangle for earnings is the usual elevated IV on the earnings ramp. Here is another reason:

SONC

Price is approaching this Breakout Box as it runs up into Earnings.

Who is left to buy?

I like selling the July 35/30 Strangle and collecting $1

– DM 9:40 AM CST