Apple Sauce

AAPL

There are always a lot of eyes on $AAPL but what is everyone looking for? What is going to show itself as a clue for a “bottom” in price?

I see one divergence as price probes the bottom of this channel ….

– DM 10:55 AM CST

Apple earnings review

AAPL

The above graphic is via Estimize and is the EPS information they provide (I added the Red lines however). It appears that the consensus on Estimize is near $2.25 for EPS as it heads into Earnings AMC today (4/27).

Now for some Option information for $AAPL:

AAPL_cboe AAPL_nasdaq

Sure looks like the skew is to the Call side. One FA note: cash for Apple should get to $200 Billion late this year or early next year. Let that sink in …

Now for a quick look at the Daily chart:

AAPL_E

 

– DM 10:45 AM CST

 

A Strangle Swap in GT Advanced Tech

One of the more anticipated news event is the Apple product announcement today. One of the potential benefactors is $GTAT and so I put on the following trade yesterday to play for an IV crush:

GTAT

Here is a breakdown of the trade:

  • I am Long the September 18/17 Strangle
  • I am Short the September 12 weekly 18/17 Strangle
  • I am Short the September 22/14 Strangle
  • This trade takes margin
  • This trade paid me a $.21 credit

So how does this trade work? Let’s view another way to look at the trade:

  • I am long the September 18/22 CS
  • I am long the September 17/14 PS
  • I am short the September 12 weekly 18/17 Strangle

Once the $AAPL event is over – and the $GTAT news is available – I am looking for the weekly Option IV to implode. As long as it stays within the 14-22 range I can look to do any necessary adjustments this Friday (if price stays in this $17-18 area, yippee).

GTAT_B

 

Apple PnF charts – an update

I did a  post in December on the 3-box & 4-box PnF charts for $AAPL and thought I would do an update to see how things look now. First the 3-box PnF:

AAPL_PnF_BAs you can see today was a Double Bottom Breakdown with a new Bearish PO of 408.

Now the 4-box PnF:

AAPL_PnF_4boxAs you can see today was a Double Bottom Breakdown with a new Bearish PO of 360. Yowza.

A quick look for perspective in an Apple Call Option

We are currently heading into expiration for the December Option chain for $AAPL and I wanted to show some perspective at the price range in the 510 Call that has occurred (currently own using proceeds from my pre-market scalps today).

Here is a 60 minute chart of the December 510 Call:

The peak came on 12/3/2012, a high of $84 for this Call. It now trades at $13.50 — just look at the recent volume.

wow

The PnF charts on Apple – update

I do PnF charts on stocks frequently in order to see how things are playing out for those that trade from this style of chart. Here are 2 views, the difference being the Box Reversal setting. First, here is the standard 3-box reversal:

This view shows a Bearish Triangle Breakdown on December 14 with a Bearish Price Object of 445. Now on to the 4-box reversal:

This perspective shows that the Bearish PO of 561.67 has already been met, and overshot to the downside. Price currently is set up for a Spread Double Bottom Breakdown here at the 510 level.

Some data points to note on this view:

  • January starts with price in $380 box
  • Peak in the $700 box in September
  • Downward retrace of that up move, now sitting in the $510 box = $30 overshoot of the $540 price box, the 50% retrace level