Reminder: The activity noted here is in Personal Accounts unless I specifically note a trade is/was for clients.
BioMarin Pharma $BMRN The Long stock piece hit a Stop on 01/21 leaving me with Short February $100 Calls. I elected to add additional Option pieces for February to create a Call Fly. Options Net shrinks to: $4.89 and stock gains: $5.84 (Fab 5)
United Rentals $URI I am Short the March $82.5 Puts (2x size). I went Short stock post-Earnings on the $90 break
F5 Networks $FFIV I am Long stock at 108.35 (post-Earnings Dip Buy, 1.5x size). This hit a Stop at $113.75 for +$4.82 so the position is now closed
SanDisk $SNDK I have StC the January 23 weekly $80 Puts. The Long weekly $80 Calls remain as well as the Short March pieces (1/2 size on these). Buy Stop is set at $78 (would be a hedge). Options Net is now: $4.81
StC = Sell to Close
- DM 10:00 AM CST
Image courtesy of Wikipedia
As part of my series on the Simple Approach, I bring you a Weekly chart on $FFIV:
Here is the breakdown on how the trigger works: You buy the first Green volume bar after 4 Red volume bars in succession. Use your trading stop & process for the exit you desire. Let’s take a look at how this trade would have fared since Jan 2010:
One note here: If you had run a wide stop on Trade #3 (6/4/2012) then you could have ridden out that pullback & bounce to the 9/17/2012 peak price of $111.58
There are a lot of great patterns to look for in stock charts that allow for a simple, clean perspective on price movement. One such pattern is the Rising Channel.
Below is an Area chart of FFIV (F5 Networks) showing this pattern:
Based on the recent price movement, one can expect a test of Resistance at 128.82 and then on to test the rail of the channel.
During the course of my weekend preparation process, I took a good hard look at a wide range of Weekly charts – set with the 65 day simple moving average (SMA). What I found was a significant percentage have price currently testing this SMA from above or below.
Within this process, I did some calculations on several of these stocks that have had some price movements in the past that were significantly higher or lower than this 65 SMA – but had reversed course to come back for a test.
One such stock is FFIV (F5 Networks). On the Weekly chart below, you can see that it has spent some quality time getting to know the 65 SMA after breaching above it in late October 2011:
The past 3 weeks, price has now begun to move up and away from the 65 SMA. Below is one set of calculations that I did showing the huge gap that existed between price and this 65 SMA back in early 2011:
Based on this data, one perspective would be a measured move (MM) to 154.63 in the future as of 2/3/2012 prices. Just one way to look at it after looking to the left on the chart – doing some Target Practice.
Enjoy the SuperBowl. And the commercials. And the halftime show. Be safe.