Volume Bar Buy trigger – starring F5 Networks

Image courtesy of Wikipedia

As part of my series on the Simple Approach, I bring you a Weekly chart on $FFIV:

Here is the breakdown on how the trigger works: You buy the first Green volume bar after 4 Red volume bars in succession. Use your trading stop & process for the exit you desire. Let’s take a look at how this trade would have fared since Jan 2010:

One note here: If you had run a wide stop on Trade #3 (6/4/2012) then you could have ridden out that pullback & bounce to the 9/17/2012 peak price of $111.58

The Rising Channel

There are a lot of great patterns to look for in stock charts that allow for a simple, clean perspective on price movement. One such pattern is the Rising Channel.

Below is an Area chart of FFIV (F5 Networks) showing this pattern:

Based on the recent price movement, one can expect a test of Resistance at 128.82 and then on to test the rail of the channel.

Target Practice

During the course of my weekend preparation process, I took a good hard look at a wide range of Weekly charts – set with the 65 day simple moving average (SMA). What I found was a significant percentage have price currently testing this SMA from above or below.

Within this process, I did some calculations on several of these stocks that have had some price movements in the past that were significantly higher or lower than this 65 SMA – but had reversed course to come back for a test.

One such stock is FFIV (F5 Networks). On the Weekly chart below, you can see that it has spent some quality time getting to know the 65 SMA after breaching above it in late October 2011:

The past 3 weeks, price has now begun to move up and away from the 65 SMA. Below is one set of calculations that I did showing the huge gap that existed between price and this 65 SMA back in early 2011:

Based on this data, one perspective would be a measured move (MM) to 154.63 in the future as of 2/3/2012 prices. Just one way to look at it after looking to the left on the chart – doing some Target Practice.

Enjoy the SuperBowl. And the commercials. And the halftime show. Be safe.